Energyfacts is an independent project conducting research and analysis in energy related areas such as the Australian Electric Vehicle market.
Energyfacts is exploring the unfolding make-up of Australia’s Light Vehicle fleet to reveal the impact of fleet electrification on greenhouse emissions and to expose significant future policy and social challenges for Government and Industry.
Energyfacts has created an EV sales penetration and fleet composition forecasting model which underpins much of this work. The results are documented in these discussion papers.
Papers and Notes
Paper 1/23 “Contribution to Australia’s Emission Reduction Target” *
Paper 2/23 “What is a Typical Electric Vehicle (Car) (Updated by 2/24)
Paper 3/23 “Why are EVs so much more efficient than ICVEs?
Paper 4.1/23 “Forecasting Australian BEV Sales Share – Part 1 (Setting the scene)
Paper 4.1/23 “Forecasting Australian BEV Sales Share – Part 2 (Looking ahead) *
Paper 4/24 “Forecasting Australian BEV Sales Share” - 2024 update *
Paper 5/23 “Electrification of the Light Vehicle Fleet (Looking further ahead)”
Paper 1.1/24 “Contribution to Australia’s Emission Reduction Target” – Part 1 (Incentives)
Paper 1.2/24 “Contribution to Australia’s Emission Reduction Target” – Part 2 (Govt) *
Paper 1.3/24 “Contribution to Australia’s Emission Reduction Target” – Part 3 (Energyfacts)
Paper 6/24 “Reconciling Energyfacts and Government Emissions Forecasts ”
Paper 8/24 “Understanding the NVES Legislation”
Paper 9/24 “A New Market Penetration Model for Battery Electric Vehicles”
TIP (1,2,3,4) “Tipping Points” – definition and four case summaries.
TIP 1 – NVES
TIP 2 – Incentives
TIP 3 – Price Parity
TIP 4 – Recharging Confidence
Monthly Forecast tracking updates
June 2023 through January 2025
LinkedIn articles (Search Rob Padgett)
The EV Transition Tsunami
Australia’s NVES – ICEv Breaker
Australia’s EV Market in just a few numbers
What is a Tipping Point
TIP – 1 to 4 (as above)
The Hybridge – The Rise and fall of HEVs
The BEV Giant is Reawakening Down Under
Final Sales figures for 2024
Australia’s NVES – the impossible dream?
January sales – waiting for the BEV awakening
* Superseded
Please contact Energyfacts if you would like to receive a copy of any of these papers.
Energyfacts is an Australian registered business name owned by Rob Padgett, a freelance analyst. Rob’s professional qualification is Electrical Engineering (UNSW) and his career has been a mix of engineering, management and management consulting. His clients have included the major telecom companies and many large local governments and institutions. He was Australasian Managing Director of the Boston-headquartered “Yankee Group” consulting firm where he worked with international telecommunications companies and major banks delivering large capital projects. Retired now, but stimulated by the enthusiasm of an EV enthusiast friend, he has taken a more thorough interest in this subject.